Daily Hotlines

10.03.11

 (click on the title above to see our chart)   On Friday before the close, we took a little time in the DayTraderHotline webinar to look back at recent market drops like the current one to see what happened next. I don't know that what's happened four times since August 17 will happen again here, but the point is, it would not be wise to bet against it.

09.26.11

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09.26.11

  The premarket was up as high as 2.0% this morning from Friday's close, and is currently at about 1.0%, still well above Thursday's high, which proved to be a barrier to higher prices on Friday. I suspect that the S&P will return to that level, at least, before going much higher than the open.  With the market approaching that level in the pre-market, we'll wait at see what happens there before considering a sale.

09.22.11

At this writing, at 9:10 AM, the premarket is down sharply overall, but going up sharply for the last 15 minutes. Volume is very light in the pre-market and direction there does NOT correlate in any meaningful way with what is going to happen in the regular market. If it did, that would be an extremely easy way to make money, and we know that there are none of those!

09.12.11

We will have a  delayed start to commentary and trading while we assess several events in the news. The premarket opened considerably down, but has gone up since shortly after the start of heavier pre-market trading on many exchanges at 8:00 AM. This is indicative of the kind of volatility we can expect through the morning, so we will lay low until 10:30 or 11:00.

09.06.11
Up from the open, not a surprise here as that's just what we look for on any large gap. In this case, the open is low because of very poor performance in European and Asian markets yesterday, when the U.S. markets were closed, and in a kind of circular fear logic, those markets were down because of fear of what the U.S. markets would do after Friday's dismal performance here. That means that continued down movement today is not to be taken for granted.
09.02.11

As of 8:04 AM, the premarket has opened low, as we expected, and has been moving up, but again, we won't see a real reaction to the jobs numbers due out at 8:30 until about a half hour into the regular session, or about 10 AM. Because of Irene, the numbers may be low, but the ISM number yesterday and the large increase in auto sales reported yesterday should both offset this number once it is all digested. 

08.30.11

Good morning. The pre-market is sharply down and on the basis of technical symmetry and the overbought condition we described yesterday, that is not unexpected. See the lower middle hourly SPY chart for a good look at that. I expect that we could see volatility on the level of 8/16, two weeks ago Tuesday. I will not be posting or trading today for at least the first hour while we wait for this initial market reaction to settle out.

08.18.11

Good morning. Well, I expected today, and the coming week, to be down, but this is pretty extreme. As usual, we will not be chasing the open, especially with a huge gap that could begin to fill at any time. It may be an hour or so before we have the opportunity for any high-probability trades.