Content about S&P 500

02.09.10

Bad news is starting to pile up and it is getting difficult to find a bull anywhere. As the market declines, sentiment is following the tape into the toilet. Therefore, we think the situation is ripe for a surprise rally. It would be the type of rally where people wonder “Why is the market going up now?”

In fact, a subscriber raised a similar question in SpearChat yesterday, asking, “With earnings season over, what would be the catalyst for any further rally?”

02.08.10

Last week the U.S. equity market spent most of its time worrying about a possible Act II for the global financial crisis. Earnings did not matter. As a result of the fear, the dollar was super strong and dollar-denominated assets (equities, commodities) demonstrated an equally strong inverse correlation, i.e., they all went down. By mid- day on Friday, March crude oil had fallen to $69.50/bbl, its lowest level since mid-December.

02.03.10
The Dow posted another triple digit day on Tuesday. The index attained our initial target and then added a few dozen points for good measure. The S&P 500 crossed above the psychologically important 1100 level and is now just 4% below its January high. So far, this is not much of a correction. Crude oil closed up 3.7%, which helped the entire energy sector advance over 3%. Financials still lag, as does tech.  
02.01.10

You may be surprised to learn that the S&P 500 has now suffered three straight weekly losses. The major indices made new lows for the year on Friday, mostly due to a sharp rise in the dollar and a breakdown in the tech sector, which had begun to weaken the day before. As the Nasdaq is the mood ring of the market, when it fails, the panic tends to spread.

01.14.10

Earnings season is upon us. The companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post ‘operating’ earnings of $15.80 per share for Q4, up from $5.62 in the same quarter last year. Operating earnings do not account for one-time charges and other types of write-downs. If the figure is attained, it would bring full year earnings to just under $60, about 10% less than 2008, but 30% less than the peak posted in 2006.

01.14.10

Main Street is struggling with a very weak jobs market, but Wall Street does not particularly care. It is not that Wall Street is heartless; it is just that it knows that a weakened labor force puts operating leverage back in the hands of corporate management. It means greater productivity per dollar of wages, which flows directly to the bottom line.