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02.08.10
Bouncing from the 200 ema - Pre Market

Last week the U.S. equity market spent most of its time worrying about a possible Act II for the global financial crisis. Earnings did not matter. As a result of the fear, the dollar was super strong and dollar-denominated assets (equities, commodities) demonstrated an equally strong inverse correlation, i.e., they all went down. By mid- day on Friday, March crude oil had fallen to $69.50/bbl, its lowest level since mid-December.

02.03.10
Bounce Underway 2 - Pre Market
The Dow posted another triple digit day on Tuesday. The index attained our initial target and then added a few dozen points for good measure. The S&P 500 crossed above the psychologically important 1100 level and is now just 4% below its January high. So far, this is not much of a correction. Crude oil closed up 3.7%, which helped the entire energy sector advance over 3%. Financials still lag, as does tech.  
02.02.10
Bounce Underway - Pre Market

The Dow rallied more than 100 points on Monday, with commodities in the lead. The ISM Manufacturing Index for January came in at 58.4, up from 55.9 in December. This is the highest reading for the index in 5 years, but don’t forget that manufacturing now accounts for less than 20% of the U.S. economy. Still, the news spurred buying in commodities. A decline in the dollar gave the hardgoods rally a tailwind.

01.14.10
Earnings Kickoff

Earnings season is upon us. The companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post ‘operating’ earnings of $15.80 per share for Q4, up from $5.62 in the same quarter last year. Operating earnings do not account for one-time charges and other types of write-downs. If the figure is attained, it would bring full year earnings to just under $60, about 10% less than 2008, but 30% less than the peak posted in 2006.